News

Looking ahead at 2002

From applications to strategies, markets to business cycles, Kiosks.org Association executive director Craig Keefner offers his take on what this year will produce in the kiosk sector.

February 21, 2002

Summarize withChatGPTGrokPerplexityClaude

Craig Keefner is executive director of Kiosks.org Association. The Houston native resides in Minnesota, though he spends much of his time in Kentucky and traveling to kiosk events around the world. He is a sought-after speaker at a variety of kiosk events worldwide.

I get asked all the time, "So what's hot? Who's doing what? Heard anything?" They are common questions in the business and technology sectors: companies feel compelled to react and, as they adjust strategies, the vendor community rises to provide and meet the new requirements.

Craig Keefner

Old ideas resurface, redressed in a modern look; maybe they will work better this time, maybe not. At the same time, new ideas emerge which improve and take a successful application to the next level.

Budgets and technologies once expanding like my waistline are suddenly put on a diet, so instead of buying new solutions, companies concentrate on better utilizing the technologies they have. Niche markets get nixed as the core gets focused.

Against this framework, the battle for customers rages on. Defend thy customer (and get some of theirs too) is the battle cry.

KIOSKmarketplace.com editor John Harrell tracked me down outside the office getting some fresh air recently and asked me what I thought we might see in the coming year. Here are some of my thoughts:

Customer Strategies

Loyalty: This continues to be a core component of a successful application. The amount of revenue this mechanism generates is huge. Bridging these types of applications to partners (via XML) or to other segments and applications is something that can be done without a big budget. Odds are they will.

Personalization: This is a technology that has yet to really hit its stride. But it is a technology that can be integrated into a multitude of applications and provides better service to customers. Fewer phone calls for companies to deal with and more terminal/Web contact is a holy grail.

For the masses: This is probably the BIG app. The closest to this now are the ATMs. Another is Eastman Kodak Co.'s Picture Maker kiosks. Convenience stores with thousands of locations will convert existing mechanisms in stores, which handle bill payment and multiple other transactions. South America is an interesting play here as well. Location/real estate is always important in this category.

Markets

Retail: My favorites here are the "Depots" of the world (American examples include Home Depot and Office Depot). Generally I look for a retrenching in the retail sector, but these types of companies either enhance assets (like houses) or serve to sustain. It is not very sexy but it is where the first dollars show up.

Gaming/Entertainment: This is one market that is set to really accelerate. In Europe in particular in the widest possible way and very much due to the differences in the "Euro States." In the U.S., the surge will be fueled differently with infrastructure and existing devices transparently upgraded and networked extensively.

Government: Services will increase. As budgets stay tight within the business community, the chance that new infrastructure is mandated by the federal government rises. New identification technologies find a home.

ATMs and POS: I think this year will mark the first leg of a multi-year upgrade cycle toward new hardware and most importantly new software to drive the ATM market. The POS market will also benefit and will grow significantly this year. Lots of opportunities to those who have invested.

Travel/Tourism/Hospitality: While the first half of the year will be marked down as conservative, during the second half of the year an upturn in this sector is bound to occur. Budgets will return and self-service will be the cornerstone.

China: Will continue its surge to top of the market.

Technologies

Networking: Gigabit Ethernet is poised to grow in a big way. Downloading a DVD in seven seconds will finally come true and multimedia imaging grows into a primary component. 802.11x gets a new WEP and becomes popular.

Consumer Devices: Automobiles get useful gadgetry and begin to be networked. Cellular hangs around and its clumsiness with credit cards and encryption dogs the telecoms. VOIP reiterates itself as the new mantra.

Mobile/Telecom: The eternal payphone evolves to another generation and begins to shine. Handhelds get held back as new provider services opt for more revenue rather than more audience share. Subject to change overall.

New technologies: Biometrics, visionic (visual and image recognition), and ID-related technologies start to gain momentum. The US begins move to a national electronic ID. Credit cards really do become smart. XML achieves epidemic status as principal data exchange nexus for companies and partners.

Business outlook

First half: Maximizing what is on hand and better integrating what is on hand are two of my mantras for the first half. Cutting back and falling back on what we have already will take on a higher priority. Budgets are conservative. Prices and services are as low as they will be.

Second half: By now things are beginning to show the significant signs of emergence. Budgets once again become real topics of conversations. New technology is gently embraced. And the next cycle begins.

Anyway, all of the above are just my views. And that can all change if I head down to the pub and have a few drafts.